Ce qui me semble intéressant, au-delà du fond économique, c’est la manière dont un ensemble d’éléments — parfois hétérogènes — peut être organisé en un cadre interprétatif stable qui finit par s’imposer comme une évidence.

C’est précisément ce type de mécanisme que j’essaie de formaliser à travers la PNI : non pas tant le contenu des décisions, mais la manière dont elles se construisent et se stabilisent cognitivement.

Votre réflexion en offre, à mon sens, une illustration particulièrement intéressante.

Votre regard sur cette approche me semblerait particulièrement intéressant.

Sébastien

Il me semble que la difficulté ne réside pas uniquement dans ces principes eux-mêmes, mais dans la manière dont ils sont interprétés et structurés par les systèmes décisionnels.

Dans certains cas, une hypothèse initiale peut progressivement orienter la lecture des faits jusqu’à devenir une certitude, créant une cohérence interne qui peut s’éloigner du réel.

C’est précisément ce mécanisme que j’essaie de formaliser à travers un modèle d’analyse (PNI).

Votre réflexion en constitue, à mon sens, une illustration particulièrement pertinente.

Sauf que la consommation peut diminuer. D’où :

« Car, il n’est pas difficile de prévoir que l’augmentation du prix de l’énergie va avoir, à terme, des effets délétères évidents avec une splendide récession et de moindres rentrées fiscales du fait de la diminution de l’activité économique … »

Nous pouvons parfois parler d’avant et d’après suite à un événement irrésistible, mais pas forcément imprévisible ou insurmontable. Le choc du 11 septembre 2001 a clairement changé la notion du « Know your Customer » en parallèle avec le développement du numérique. Le « Watching you » s’est clairement densifié depuis avec un effet global partout à travers le monde.

Ce qui se passe actuellement dans le Golf Persique est un 2ème choc dans notre ère moderne. Les choses ne vont pas redevenir comme avant. Le CCG (Conseil du Golf Persique) est mort. Tout va changer dans ce qui a fait sa prospérité pour reconstruire ses infrastructures détruites mais avec quels capitaux et quelles garanties ? La main des occidentaux sur le registre est probablement détruite. Négocier ? Oui mais les termes du contrat viennent clairement de changer …

Les derniers Tankers chargés en provenance de ladite nouvelle zone de guerre viennent de terminer de décharger. Trump a raison que le Détroit d’Ormuz est notre problème à nous européens, comme le dollar aussi. Mais ce qui va se passer est que des tensions vitales sur des matières premières de première nécessité vont manquer à l’appel.

Donc, comme la Russie tourne à plein régime vers l’Est pour l’approvisionner en matières utiles, l’Europe va devoir gérer les prix de l’énergie et la pénurie. Pénurie ? Est-ce possible ?

Comme le répète à foison Charles Gaves, l’économie est de l’énergie transformée et moins elle est chère et plus elle est abondante, meilleur c’est pour nous.

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